- Monster Employment Index (Released 6:00 EST)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBA Mortgage Purchases (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBA Mortgage Refinances (Released 7:00 EST)
- Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Released 7:30 EST)
- ADP Employment Change YoY (Released 8:15 EST)
- RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Released 9:00 EST)
- RPX Composite 28dy Index (Released 9:00 EST)
- Factory Orders YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- Factory Orders MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Factory Orders Table (Released 10:00 EST)
Monster Employment Index (Jun)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 163 |
| Prior | 166 |
| Revised | 174 |
Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.
MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.6% |
| Prior | -9.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 342.8 |
| Prior | 333.4 |
| Revised | n/a |
Up some in the new, lower range.
In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.
MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1269.2 |
| Prior | 1212.2 |
| Revised | n/a |
Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.
Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 46.7% |
| Prior | 45.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.
ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)
| Survey | -20K |
| Actual | -79K |
| Prior | 40K |
| Revised | 25K |
Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.
The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.
Karim writes:
ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.
NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.
I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.
RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -14.67% |
| Prior | -13.97% |
| Revised | n/a |
RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 234.41 |
| Prior | 235.40 |
| Revised | n/a |
Factory Orders YoY (May)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 5.0% |
| Prior | 4.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.
Factory Orders MoM (May)
| Survey | 0.5% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 1.1% |
| Revised | 1.3% |
Better than expected and last month revised up some.
Factory Orders Table (May)
Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.
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The level of pessimism in financial markets is something to behold. Seems like every piece of negative data will sell off the markets.
Yes, and doesn’t look like there’s any shortage of it coming over the immediate future
supporting your point, when i look at individual stocks fundamentally they all look dirt cheap. and even the energy related stocks seem mostly priced to much cheaper oil
it all looks ‘priced to worst’ but rather than call a bottom seems more prudent to wait for it to turn north before jumping in
I think a significant pull back in crude oil can pop the stock market to the up side. Hearing that short interest is very high in US stocks.
Any update on legislation to limit crude oil speculation?
BTW, Bill Gross calling for 1 Trillion$ deficit. He been reading this
site?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/83264-bill-gross-to-president-obama-double-the-deficit
Bank stocks trading like they’re all going out of business. Seems half the group trading below tangible book value.
Warren,
When you mention wait to turn north…you’re thinking short term bounce or major bottom in? Seems if oil declines we could have a big bounce. Otherwise, looks like we’re pretty precarious technically….what do you think?
Thanks,
Rob K.
yes, it’s fluid, and with rate hikes gaining popularity
i wouldn’t do any bottom fishing for a trade.