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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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6 Responses

  1. The level of pessimism in financial markets is something to behold. Seems like every piece of negative data will sell off the markets.

  2. Yes, and doesn’t look like there’s any shortage of it coming over the immediate future

    supporting your point, when i look at individual stocks fundamentally they all look dirt cheap. and even the energy related stocks seem mostly priced to much cheaper oil

    it all looks ‘priced to worst’ but rather than call a bottom seems more prudent to wait for it to turn north before jumping in

  3. Bank stocks trading like they’re all going out of business. Seems half the group trading below tangible book value.

  4. Warren,

    When you mention wait to turn north…you’re thinking short term bounce or major bottom in? Seems if oil declines we could have a big bounce. Otherwise, looks like we’re pretty precarious technically….what do you think?

    Thanks,

    Rob K.

  5. yes, it’s fluid, and with rate hikes gaining popularity
    i wouldn’t do any bottom fishing for a trade.

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