“Inflation is a problem,” she said. Yet the problem isn’t excessive demand, rising wages, or a tight labor market, but “negative supply shocks.” Once the shocks wear off, the inflation rate can’t be sustained in the long run without a pick-up in wage growth, she said.
“There’s no textbook answer to what monetary policy should be doing at this time,” Yellen added.
Yes, there is – the mainstream says quite clearly ‘don’t add to demand during a negative supply shock. Or a triple negative supply shock. That will monetize the price increases and turn a relative value story into an inflation story.’
The FF rate is now below the year over year headline and core CPI; so, it’s easy for the Fed to now make the case the ‘real rate’ is negative and cutting it any could adversely alter long term employment and growth given the balance of risks between market functioning, inflation, and the output gap.
They also think they know that if markets are expecting a 25 basis point cut they need to do less than that to get a positive inflation response.
And, as before, they need to set a rate for the TAF and accept any bank legal collateral to be able to more effectively target LIBOR as desired.