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Still looks to me the call on OPEC crude will be about the same:

CGES: Global oil demand to contract in 2009

CGES,The Centre for Global Energy Studies a leading energy forecasting organization said on Tuesday on its monthly oil report that Global oil demand
is likely to contract in 2009 for the first time in 25 years.

CGES said demand growth in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East can no longer offset the continuing decline in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries.

In a report, the consultancy said consumers are still responding to recent high pump prices, and a loss of confidence in employment and income prospects means even a lower price won’t halt the decline in demand.

CGES also said the recent slide in oil prices won’t end until the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implements its recent 1.5 million barrels a day cut in output, or higher cost non-OPEC production is shut-in.

CGES said its demand pessimism is “offset to a degree” by its view of non-OPEC supply, which is “unlikely to show any real growth in either 2008 or 2009.”


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