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Production falling some but overall demand probably remains high, as reported inventories remain very low, as the GMIL (Great Master’s Inventory Liquidation) may still be a factor as more pension funds resist adding to passive commodity strategies.

Several months ago a Saudi official said he though $85 was the ‘right’ price, but that doesn’t mean it’s their target.

They are still price setter, until their production is forces down by several million bpd by excess supply.

Meanwhile, lower crude prices both support the $US and help keep a lid on headline inflation.

OPEC September Crude Output Down 425,000 Bbl/Day to 32.19 Million

New York, Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) Crude-oil production from the 13 OPEC members in September declined 425,000 barrels a day from August, the latest Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts shows. Figures are in the thousands of barrels a day.

Opec Production
September 2008

Opec Country Sept. Est. Aug. Output Monthly Change Nov. 1 Target Est. vs. Target Est. Cap. (@)
Algeria 1,400 1,410 -10 1,357 43 1,450
Angola** 1,800 1,880 -80 1,900 -100 1,930
Ecuador 500 500 0 520 -20 500
Indonesia 865 865 0 865 0 900
Iran 3,950 4,080 -130 3,817 133 4,100
Iraq** 2,135 2,310 -175 2,500
Kuwait# 2,600 2,600 0 2,531 69 2,650r
Libya 1,720 1,630 90 1,712 8 1,750
Nigeria 1,880 1,940r -60 2,163 -283 2,200
Qatar 880 880 0 828 52 900
Saudi Arabia# 9,450 9,500 -50 8,943 507 10,800
U.A.E 2,650 2,660 -10 2,567 83 2,800r
Venezuela 2,360 2,360 0 2,470 -110 2,500
Total OPEC-13 32,190 32,165r -425 34,980r
Total OPEC-12* 30,055 30,305r -250 29,673 382 32,480r

**Iraq has no quota. Quotas effective Nov. 1, except for OPEC’s newest members,
Angola and Ecuador, who were formally assigned output targets Dec. 5, 2007.
OPEC announced a quota target of 28.808 million bbls/day at its Sept. 10
meeting but that figure excludes Indonesia who plans to leave the producer formally at year-end.

Totals rounded.

r = revised @ = Capacity attainable within 30 days and sustainable for 90 days.
# Includes Neutral Zone production shared equally between Saudi Arabia & Kuwait.


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