(an interoffice email)

On Thu, Feb 28, 2008 at 9:38 AM, Karim wrote:

 

  • Housing and business capex weaker than originally estimated; exports stronger
  • All above offset to leave gwth at 0.6% annualized in Q4

Yes, nominal growth falls to 3.3% from 6.0% in Q3 as well.

 

  • More important news is claims, which corroborate recent weak survey data (Conf Board, ISM)
    • Initial now at 373k (prior revised from 349k to 354k)
    • Continuing up 21k on week to a new cycle high of 2807k
    • Higher continuing claims reflect lack of hiring, higher initial claims reflect new layoffs

Yes, up in a new range. Q1 looking near zero as widely anticipated. Exports may be strong enough to keep the economy out of recession, but not much more without a March recovery.

Crude back over $100, $ down some, commodities up some, etc.

Weakness and inflation continue.

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