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Karim writes:

  • -533k in payrolls, and downward revisions of -199k to prior 2 mths
  • Unemployment rate rises ‘only’ to 6.7% from 6.5% because 422k left the labor force
  • The 2 real shockers are:
    • Index of hours fell 0.9% for the month (after -0.4% prior mth); even adjusting for some productivity gwth, looks like real GDP in Q4 may be more like -7 to -8% vs the most recent range of estimates of -4 to -5%.
    • Diffusion index plunges from 37.8 to 27.6; support for job gwth increasingly narrow.
  • By sector
    • Mfg -85k
    • Construction -82k
    • Retail -91k
    • Finance -32k
    • Temp help -78k
    • Hospitality -76k
    • Education +52k
    • Govt +7k


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