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From Karim:

Broad-based weakness.

  • Payrolls -159k, net revisions +4k.
  • Unemployment rate rises from 6.055% to 6.125%.
  • Avg hourly earnings up 0.2%.
  • The shocker was hours worked down 0.5% and down 2% at annualized rate in Q3.
  • Labor income = payrolls X average hourly earnings X hours worked.
  • Hours data implies negative GDP in Q3 and very weak handoff to Q4, where some forecasts are already in -2% to -3% area for real GDP.
  • Diffusion Index down from 44.7 to 38.1.
  • Manufacturing -51k
  • Retail -40k
  • Construction -35k
  • Finance -17k
  • Temp Services -24k
  • Education +25k
  • Government +9k

BLS stated weather did not have ‘substantial’ effect on number.


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