With deficit spending running at about 7% of gdp modest growth should continue, with the ‘hand off’ coming when private sector credit expansion kicks in, which could be a while.
Karim writes:
Slowing, but still firmly in expansionary mode.
15 industries expand, 2 contract, 4 unch.
What respondents are saying…
- “The general upswing in the economy, albeit minor, has had a positive effect.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- “Pricing pressures continue to increase as we see the economy begin to improve. Orders are still lagging in our industry.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Slow pace, but better than last year at this time.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
- “Funding issues and cash flow issues continue to affect public sector procurement. Almost all capital acquisitions have been suspended.” (Public Administration)
- “We have seen a slight improvement in business activity over the past month.” (Wholesale Trade)
| June | May | |
| Composite | 53.8 | 55.4 |
| Activity | 58.1 | 61.1 |
| Prices Paid | 53.8 | 60.6 |
| New Orders | 54.4 | 57.1 |
| Employment | 49.7 | 50.4 |
| Exports Orders | 48.0 | 53.5 |
| Imports | 48.0 | 56.5 |
the quoted comments all reflect a bit of Yankee optimism; with private savings declining as we speak, some nasty surprises could easily unfold
Yes, but on the financial front, is the GFC behind us, or are there more shoes to drop? Still lots of questions about banks, for example.