With a federal budget deficit still as large as it is, not all that much of a surprise.


Karim writes:

Nice upside surprise:

  • Orders and employment both up on the month; export orders up sharply (but not seasonally adjusted)



Sept Aug
Composite 53.2 51.5
Activity 52.8 54.4
Prices Paid 60.1 60.3
New Orders 54.9 52.4
Employment 50.2 48.2
Export orders 58.0 46.5
Imports 53.0 50.5

7 Responses

    1. JC,
      TARP seems to be working in reverse as far as the deficit now. ie As the money is “paid back” it is resulting in higher deposits to the Treasury’s Fed account, thus lowering the deficit (cash basis). Much of the TARP was paid out in FY2009, that made that FY’s deficit seem higher. This past year (FY 2010) the process was reversed as the entities “paid back” the TARP balances.

      The key flow measure to me looks like about a $110B-$120B per month fiscal deficit… that seems to be what the non-govt sector can as WM sez ‘muddle through’ on for now.

      Resp,

    1. just read the article. looks ok to me? he says qe will cut rates some, which is true, and that it won’t help and the economy will remain sluggish, and that hiking taxes will hurt. am i missing something?

      1. Sorry, I wasn’t saying he was wrong – I was just trying to remember if he was the guy from GS that you had mentioned talking to.

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