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We’ll see if the zero rate policy keeps giving that feeling that the economy is dragging an anchor chain, and requires lower taxes for a given amount of govt. spending to sustain a lower output gap.

Karim writes:

  • ADP, claims and employment component of ISM survey consistent with payroll gwth of 0 to -50k on Friday.
  • ISM (non-mfg) moves back above 50

Dec Nov
Composite 50.1 48.7
Activity 53.7 49.6
Prices paid 58.7 57.8
New Orders 52.1 55.1
Employment 44.0 41.6

  • “Economy seems to have leveled off with expectation of an upswing in our business in Q1 2010.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “There has been a slight upturn in our business activities; however, it is not entirely attributable to any one particular source.” (Public Administration)
  • “The environment seems to be improving, but we will continue to be cautious as we look forward.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The current economic conditions are continuing to have a flat or negative effect on our business.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “No items in short supply; suppliers looking to set up agreements for 2010 with quarterly or semiannual price reviews.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)


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