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Heard last night index funds have liquidated the equivalent of maybe 140 million barrels of crude.

Add to that trend followers who went from long to short, and it’s way more than enough to explain the sell-off.

Since the Saudis don’t want to make their price setting status obvious, they ‘get out of the way’ for these type of liquidations, and if they want prices back up, as I suspect they do, they start bringing them up after the smoke clears.


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4 Responses

  1. Warren,

    Just curious: do you give any credence to mumbo jumbo like wave theory in the market, armstrong economic confidence models, etc., in predicting your market bets or are you more of a macro guy?

    Thanks,

    Rob K.

  2. I give a lot of credence to all that as it’s a reflection of human nature to some extent, which is a very powerful force.

    But in my old age i’ve gotten lazy and just look at the macro fundamentals

  3. not my strong point!

    I have no way to tell in what stage the liquidation is.

    certainly would like to see it stop going down and move up a few % first.

    results of the opec meeting may be telling as well

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