On Dec 5, 2007 11:50 PM, Wray, Randall wrote:
> Bill: thanks. Yes I think the data are overwhelming for very serious problems, for deep recession, and for rate cuts.
the problems to the real economy aren’t showing up yet
- exports have been more than filling the housing gap- as long as foreigners continue the move to ‘spend their hoard’ of $US we can probably muddle through for quite a while.
- housing feels like it’s bottomed and won’t be subtracting from gdp. mtg rates are lower than in august and banks are pushing hard to loan directly without the securitization process and are keeping the (wider) spreads for themselves.
- none of the losses so far have been anything more than rearranging financial assets and have not resulted in business interruption in the real economy.
- unlike the 30’s, we are not on the gold standard. If we had been on it, instead of the run up in gold prices of recent years the same relative value changes would have instead been evidenced by a massive deflation (gold held constant), outflows of gold from the govt, and maybe higher rates to keep that from happening, eventual devaluation (1934), and more powerful motivation for trade wars- all like the 1930’s and other standard gold standard collapses. So comps with the 1930’s can be highly misleading. With today’s non convertible currency the ‘adjustments’ are very different and the financial stresses tend to be more removed from main street. Note the s and l crisis, the crash of 87, the 98 credit crisis had relatively minor effects on gdp. Loans create deposits unconstrained by the gold supply, and capital is likewise both endogenous and not constrained by gold. Instead, all is constrained by income, and govts are pretty good at sustaining that at least at modest levels during slowdown with countercyclical tax structures leading the way, and lots of ‘off balance sheet deficit spending’ leaking out all over the world. This includes massive state bank lending from China, to even the eurozone (though that may be catching up with them under current arrangements), and budget deficits around the world sufficient for the moment to keep things muddling through.
> there is a very large body of evidence to indicate this is the worst situation seen in the US since the 1930s. It is a good time for >pragmatism and for throwing out silly rules. Central bankers are doing what they can. Unfortunately, as we all know only too well, the importance of fiscal policy is not understood.
Right, while I would cut rates to 0, I would also offset the resulting fiscal drag but cutting social security taxes. Irony is current rate cuts in isolation tighten the fiscal balance.
Also, I’m thinking a world wide cap on the $ price of imported crude and domestic gasoline prices might be a short term path to price stability and a long term path to using less of it as costs of production rise and it can’t be sold profitable.
Just in the beginning stage of this concept!
Meanwhile, I don’t think any slowdown will cut net demand for crude sufficiently to take away Saudi and Russian pricing power for at least the next 6 months. and if they simply spend their income here the higher prices won’t slow gdp, just hurt our real terms of trade and keep upward pressure on cpi which is starting to spill over to core, and which the Fed won’t ignore as it climbs past 4, 5 and 6%.
>There isn’t too much reason to be optimistic. As they say, we live in
interesting times, that are making us long for boring. See you in
> L. Randall Wray
> Research Director
> Center for Full Employment and Price Stability
> 211 Haag Hall, Department of Economics
> 5120 Rockhill Road
> Kansas City, MO 64110-2499
> Senior Scholar
> Levy Economics Institute
> Bard College
> Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504
> From: Warren Mosler [mailto:email@example.com]
> Sent: Wed 12/5/2007 8:13 PM
> To: Bill Mitchell
> Subject: Re: change of govt = change of practice
> Hi Bill, good info, thanks very much!
> On Dec 5, 2007 3:48 PM, Bill Mitchell wrote:
> > dear warren
> > history was made yesterday – the RBA published the minutes of their
> > meeting
> > on Tuesday where they spell out their reasoning on rates (no change).
> > This
> > is the first time they have done that and it follows the election
> > campaign where
> > Rudd made a big point of returning honesty and transparency to his govt
> > after
> > the bad howard years of lying and covering up anything that moved.
> > So you can see the minutes tell you that a further rate rise is now not
> > inevitable
> > despite inflation being above the magic upper bound of 3 and despite
> > them expecting
> > it to remain that way for at least 6 months more.
> > They are now saying that world trends are for lower interest rates to
> > cope with the
> > worsening credit crisis.
> > So: (a) their strict Inflation Targetting is being violated by “other
> > concerns”
> > (b) they think the US is heading for recession.
> > local commentators last night said the Fed will lower by 0.5 next week
> > after BOC went
> > down this week and BOE is heading that way too.
> > anyway, today the CofFEE conference starts – 2 days.
> > see you
> > bill