From Karim:

  1. Index of aggregate hours -0.3%
  1. Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2
  1. Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks

So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed

Other notes..

Partially reversing last month’s rise.

This is not the first reported drop in payrolls, as August originally reported down 4,000. It was eventually revised up to 92,000 and then further revised up to 74,000 with benchmark revisions.

December was revised up to 82,000 from 18,000.

November down from 115,000 to 60,000.

This rearranges the sequence with November now possible the bottom, should January get revised up higher than 82,000.

Yes, these look like the kind of numbers likely to result in the kinds of revisions we’ve been seeing continuously for at least six months.

And the revisions to payroll numbers have put them more in line with the ADP numbers.

ADP was up 130,000 for January.

December durable goods was a blowout number.

Inventories were down substantially in Q4.

While the initial reported payroll numbers have all been substantially revised, markets have continued to respond to the initial reports and not to the revisions.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *