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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q A)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

A bit better than exected, and longer term the chart shows gradual declining rates of growth of GDP.

Karim writes:

  • GDP weak across the board
  • Economy contracts at 0.3% annualized rate in Q3
  • Sector changes (all annualized)
  • Personal consumption -3.1%
  • Non residential investment -1%
  • Residential investment (housing) -19.1%
  • Exports 5.9% (from 12.3%)
  • Government 5.8%

Government spending to keep the numbers from being a lot worse.


GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

Same, been trending down for quite a while.


GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

Nominal is sagging as well, indicating weakening nominal demand.


GDP Price Index (3Q A)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected, but of no concern to a ‘forward looking’ Fed.




Core PCE QoQ (3Q A)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Core continues to march higher, and unless crude prices stay at the lows this can continue for several quarters.


Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 475K
Actual 479K
Prior 478K
Revised 479K

Still looks to be moving up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial unchanged at 479k but no hurricane effects so underlying trend weaker by about 12-15k
  • Continuing claims drop 12k from upwardly revised 3727k to 3715k
  • Looks like -250 to -300k on next payrolls.


Continuing Claims (Oct 18)

Survey 3735K
Actual 3715K
Prior 3720K
Revised 3727K

Near previous peaks, remains high.


Jobless Claims ALLX (Oct 25)


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