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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 313.50
Prior 314.50
Revised n/a

 
Down a tad, but the lower band of the range holding.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 1514.20
Prior 1345.80
Revised n/a

 
Refi machine seems to be functioning.

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 10)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.6
Prior -7.4
Revised n/a

 
Much lower than expected as the world economy slows.

Karim says:

  • Drops from -7.4 to record low of -24.6.
  • Orders drop 25 points, shipments drop 9 points, workweek drops 4 points.
  • Employment modest improvement from -4.6 to -3.7
  • Bulk of labor force adjustment seems to be in hours.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

Karim says:

  • Headline -0.4% and core +0.4%
  • Intermediate stage -1.2% and core -0.3%
  • Crude stage -7.9% and core -9.4%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 8.6%
Actual 8.7%
Prior 9.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still up big year over year.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
This is breaking out as well.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

 
Lowe than expected partly due to lower gasoline prices.

Karim says:

  • -1.2% m/m and -0.6% m/m ex-autos; modest downward revisions to back months.
  • -1.3% ex-gas.
  • All you need to know is only 2 components to rise m/m were health care and gasoline!
  • Furniture and clothing were each down 2.3%; the drop in furniture the most since Feb 2003.
  • And this before the 15% month to date decline in equities in October.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Looking like recession levels.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

 
Also, lower than expected.

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Business Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
A little lower than expected.

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Business Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 6.5%
Revised n/a

 
Working their way higher but not out of control.


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