[Skip to the end]


Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

[top][end]

Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

[top][end]

Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

[top][end]


PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


[top]

Leave a Reply