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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

Survey 440K
Actual 445K
Prior 445K
Revised n/a

Staying at the top of the new range since the extended benefit package went into force. And might be a touch high due to the hurricane.


Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

Survey 3525K
Actual 3478K
Prior 3525K
Revised 3533K

Down a bit and better than expected but still on the high side.


Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 13)


Philadelphia Fed (Sep)

Survey -10.0
Actual 3.8
Prior -12.7
Revised n/a

Back to positive territory with an upside surprise.


Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Sep)


Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Sep)


Leading Indicators (Aug)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

Leading indicators down more than expected. This is largely a financial conditions indicator.


Leading Indicators ALLX (Aug)


Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 10k to new cycle of 455k but DOL states Gustav-related claims helped boost weekly rise.

  • 4wk avg rises to 445k from 440k.

  • Continuing claims fall 55k to 3478k, partially reversing prior weeks large 129k increase.

  • 4wk average of continuing rises from 3431k to 3461k.

  • Even if initial claims would have been lower ex-Gustav, recent trends in both IJC and CC reflect a faster pace of labor market deterioration.

  • Next month’s payrolls likely to be down more than 100k.

  • Activity index rises from -12.7 to 3.8.

  • Prices paid drop from 57.5 to 31.5.

  • Orders and shipments rise 17.5 and 5.9pts, respectively, both into modest positive position.

  • Employment component basically unch at -0.9.


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