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Producer Price Index MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

A welcome drop for the Fed but only wipes out part of last month’s gain.


PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

Again, moderating a bit, but the two month average is still very high.


Producer Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey 10.2%
Actual 9.6%
Prior 9.8%
Revised n/a

Still sky high.


PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Aug)

Survey 3.7%
Actual 3.6%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

Less than expected but still too high.


Advanced Retail Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised -0.5%

Weaker than expected and previous month revised lower as well.

A large drop in gasoline sales due to falling prices was a factor. Ex gasoline sales retail sales were flat.


Advanced Retail Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

While muddling through with modest increases, the drift looks lower.


Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.3%

Lower than expected and more than reverses last month.


Business Inventories (Jul)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.8%

Higher than expected. Question is whether this is in response to higher sales or unwanted due to lower sales.


Business Inventories YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 5.7%
Revised n/a

Inventory levels look reasonable here.

Karim writes:

  • Gas prices showing their importance

  • Confidence rises from 63 to 73.1 (though level still quite low historically)

  • 1yr fwd inflation expex fall from 4.8% to 3.6%

  • 5-10yr fwd inflation expex fall from 3.2% to 2.9% (back in the range)


2 Responses

  1. My ‘favorite’ indicator for recession has finally peaked, after quite a few years and despite increasing exports. I’m concerned this will become a trend downward.

    6 Commercial and industrial 1,311.1 1,462.0 1,483.5 1,493.2 1,499.7 1,506.9 1,514.2 1,514.0

  2. c and i lending might just be shifting back to commercial paper or other non bank financing? I’ve been hearing some about direct non bank financing, but don’t have details.

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