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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.


GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.



From Cesar:


  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP


Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.


Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.


Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)


Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)


Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.


Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)


Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.


Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.


Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.


Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)


NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.


NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


2 Responses

  1. been out of the office for several days, back end of August.

    keeping up best i can via my laptop

    still looks like gdp still muddling through supported by govt and exports.

    looks like the ‘bottom’ was in q4 as suspected

    never sure what saudis are up to, but probably still in hike mode

    semgroup fiasco probably ran crude up temporarily covering shorts that cost them a reported 3.2 billion in losses, after which prices settled back as they may have had to sell physical oil in storage.

    so prices to remain firm. prices flowing through core cpi are from crude at maybe 70, so lots more passthrough to come

    foreign sector has slowed as US demand for non oil imports has slowed, but they still have $US to spend here to keep our trade gap down.

    systemic risk is in the eurozone

    ‘competitive’ non oil commodities have seen their day

    world govts seem to be stepping on what they think are the inflation pedals- rates lower than otherwise and govt deficits and govt lending and support rising.

    got to run.

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