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Trade Balance (May)

Survey -$62.5B
Actual -$59.8B
Prior -$60.9B
Revised -$60.5B


Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.


Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.636B
Prior -$25.724B
Revised n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.


Exports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 17.8%
Prior 19.6%
Revised n/a



Imports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 12.5%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.


Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.


Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 18.6%
Actual 20.5%
Prior 17.8%
Revised 18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.


U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey 55.5
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.4


U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.


Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.


Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.


Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey $34.0B
Actual $50.7B
Prior $27.5B
Revised n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.


2 Responses

  1. Warren, interesting day today. While stock market indexes flirted with multi year lows you had more negative inflation data and then you have the fed rescuing the GSE’s similar to what they did with investment banks by opening the discount window. I noticed that eurodollar futures
    were down big today after the announcements. Is this because the market is anticipating the FED is going to use these other weapons in lieu of looser FFR policy?

  2. seems that way to me. the price increases flooding through from import and export prices concurrent with the falling dollar and now rising retail sales and q2 gdp forecasts are being presumed to be accelerating the balance of risks toward inflation.

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