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ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1
Prior -0.6
Revised n/a

Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9
Prior 2.8
Revised n/a

A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual n/a
Prior n/a
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey 48.5
Actual 50.2
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)

Survey 87.0
Actual 91.5
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.

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ISM TABLE (Jun)

Karim writes:

  • Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
  • Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).

Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.

  • Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.

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Construction Spending MoM (May)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.1%

A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.

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Construction Spending YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)

Survey n/a
Actual -43
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.


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