- Personal Income (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- U of Michigan Confidence (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Income (May)
| Survey | 0.4% |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.3% |
Higher than expected as fiscal rebates kick in, and last month revised up some as well.
Personal Spending (May)
| Survey | 0.7% |
| Actual | 0.8% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.4% |
Also higher than expected with consumers spending a higher % of fiscal rebates than expected.
PCE Deflator YoY (May)
| Survey | 3.2% |
| Actual | 3.1% |
| Prior | 3.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
A bit lower than expected.
PCE Core MoM (May)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.1% |
| Prior | 0.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Also lower than expected.
PCE Core YoY (May)
| Survey | 2.2% |
| Actual | 2.1% |
| Prior | 2.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
This is lower than expected as well.
Karim writes:
- Core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May, unch at 2.1% y/y.
- Headline deflator up 0.4% and rises from 3.1% to 3.2%.
- Personal income up 1.8% due to 25.6% rise in ‘other’ government transfer payments (tax rebates); wage and salary income up 0.3% after -0.1% read prior month
- Personal spending up 0.4%
Yesterday Kohn mentioned there were only a few signs of higher headline inflation ’embedding’ themselves into core; this report another sign of that.
U of Michigan Confidence (Jun F)
| Survey | 56.7 |
| Actual | 56.4 |
| Prior | 56.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Karim Writes:
- Drop from May to June (59.8 to 56.4); 3rd lowest reading in 46yr history of survey.
- Record low (21%) reported income gains, reflecting job losses and housing and equity wealth declines.
- Rising food and energy prices also contributed to worst buying climate survey for durables since 1980.
- Current conditions fell 5.7pts.
- Expectations component fell 2pts; this now 38% off of Jan 2007 high; survey report stated that 25-35% drop in expectations was typical in advance of Post-WW 2 recessions.
- 1yr fwd inflation expectations drop from 5.2% to 5.1% in June; 5yr fwd unch at 3.4%.
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