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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 6.3%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales YoY

Pending Home Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -13.8%
Prior -21.7%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales ALLX

Pending Home Sales ALLX

Yet another better than expected release.

Might be too strong to call this a blow out number, but only because it’s from a low base.

The northeast was about flat, the rest of the regions up.

For a while I’ve been suggesting we bottomed in the Oct/Nov period and it still looks like that could be about right.

Note the large jump in the non seasonally adjusted numbers.

Prices should be (irregularly) moving up as well.

And housing will be expected to subtract less from GDP. Might even start adding soon.

The Fed is getting what it perceives as ‘further and further behind the inflation curve’ as CPI continues higher and GDP moves higher.

And much of the financial sector is getting left behind as the real economy moves forward without it.

Friday’s unemployment info was a lagging indicator and now it’s fading from market memory as well as evidenced by the large increases in market interest rates.


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5 Responses

  1. “And much of the financial sector is getting left behind as the real economy moves forward without it.”

    Can the real economy continue to move forward without some improvement in the financial sector. There has been a tremedous amount of capital raised in the sector and one has to assume, with the general repricing of risk, that returns on capital should be ample going forward.

  2. the financial sector is largely predatory so as the real economy moves on the financial sector will know doubt do better feeding off of it.

  3. Won’t the higher interest rates and tighter lending standards put a significant drag on the housing recovery?

  4. doubt it.

    in the 70’s we had strong housing with 15% mtgs. didn’t break until 79 when the deficit got too small and briefly went into surplus due to the way inflation caused ‘bracket creep’ as the higher nominal incomes moved people up to higher tax brackets.

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