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2008-06-06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

Survey -60K
Actual -49K
Prior -20K
Revised -28K

Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (May)

Survey 5.1%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate ALLX

Unemployment Rate ALLX

Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.

So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.

5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.

Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.

Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.

But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.

Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.

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2008-06-06 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)

Survey -40K
Actual -26K
Prior -46K
Revised -49

Better than expected, in line with other recent report.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 3.5%

Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.

‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.

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2008-06-06 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (May)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Holding steady.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories MoM

Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.1%

Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories YoY

Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.1%
Prior 7.0%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected, but still not all that high.

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2008-06-06 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (April)

Survey $7.2B
Actual $8.9B
Prior $15.3B
Revised $13.1B

This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.


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3 Responses

  1. Interesting exchange between Barney Frank and Larry Kudlow on CNBC today as Frank calls for a new stimulus package.
    [ I paraphrase ]

    Frank (on 2nd stimulus): We are still in trouble and would like to alleviate the suffering of individuals. This is classic countercyclical policy. Also we need aid to state and local governments who are being squeezed by declining property tax
    revenues.

    Kudlow: Where is the money going to come from?

    Frank: There was no money for war in Iraq and we found it. Need a temporary increase in the deficit. [wow! great point sounding like a soft currency guy ]

    Larry Kudlow: let the first fiscal package work its way through. Biggest issue is energy market shock.
    We are seeing great improvement in rate of delinquicies.

    Frank: Package between Dodd and Shelby on the table to further support
    the housing sector. If we don’t do anything in the housing area, foreclosures will continue to increase.

    Kundlow: Why not take is slow, there is evidence the economy is working its way through these problems.

    Frank: You are underestimating the social and economic consequences of inaction for people who can’t afford to wait.

  2. seems neither is concerned about adding to demand during an inflation spike.

    kudlow has to be careful against arguing against deficits as he wants tax cuts, though presumably to bring the deficit down later

    also, seems the fed is getting very concerned about demand adding to inflation

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