- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Unemployment Rate (Released 8:30 EST)
- Unemployment Rate ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Weekly Hours (Released 8:30 EST)
- Wholesale Inventories MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Wholesale Inventories YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Credit (Released 15:00 EST)
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
| Survey | -60K |
| Actual | -49K |
| Prior | -20K |
| Revised | -28K |
Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.
Unemployment Rate (May)
| Survey | 5.1% |
| Actual | 5.5% |
| Prior | 5.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Unemployment Rate ALLX
Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.
So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.
5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.
Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.
Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.
But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.
Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)
| Survey | -40K |
| Actual | -26K |
| Prior | -46K |
| Revised | -49 |
Better than expected, in line with other recent report.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)
| Survey | 3.4% |
| Actual | 3.5% |
| Prior | 3.4% |
| Revised | 3.5% |
Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.
‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.
Average Weekly Hours (May)
| Survey | 33.7 |
| Actual | 33.7 |
| Prior | 33.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Holding steady.
Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)
| Survey | 0.4% |
| Actual | 1.3% |
| Prior | -0.1% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.
Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 8.1% |
| Prior | 7.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Higher than expected, but still not all that high.
Consumer Credit (April)
| Survey | $7.2B |
| Actual | $8.9B |
| Prior | $15.3B |
| Revised | $13.1B |
This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.
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Job rate jump ‘annihilates’ view Fed to hike soon: analyst
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/job-rate-jump-annihilates-view/story.aspx?guid=%7B7AF705AD%2D0B4E%2D4286%2D9260%2D7CEE593985F3%7D&dist=hplatest
Looks like lots of people in mainstream don’t see the inflation
scenario playing out the way you do. You’ve called for 6% headline
in a matter of months. Nobody is saying that. Why not?
Interesting exchange between Barney Frank and Larry Kudlow on CNBC today as Frank calls for a new stimulus package.
[ I paraphrase ]
Frank (on 2nd stimulus): We are still in trouble and would like to alleviate the suffering of individuals. This is classic countercyclical policy. Also we need aid to state and local governments who are being squeezed by declining property tax
revenues.
Kudlow: Where is the money going to come from?
Frank: There was no money for war in Iraq and we found it. Need a temporary increase in the deficit. [wow! great point sounding like a soft currency guy ]
Larry Kudlow: let the first fiscal package work its way through. Biggest issue is energy market shock.
We are seeing great improvement in rate of delinquicies.
Frank: Package between Dodd and Shelby on the table to further support
the housing sector. If we don’t do anything in the housing area, foreclosures will continue to increase.
Kundlow: Why not take is slow, there is evidence the economy is working its way through these problems.
Frank: You are underestimating the social and economic consequences of inaction for people who can’t afford to wait.
seems neither is concerned about adding to demand during an inflation spike.
kudlow has to be careful against arguing against deficits as he wants tax cuts, though presumably to bring the deficit down later
also, seems the fed is getting very concerned about demand adding to inflation