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2008-06-05 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (May 31)

Survey 375K
Actual 357K
Prior 372K
Revised 375K

Whoops, no recession here – the ‘better than expected’ trend continues.

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2008-06-05 Continuing Jobless Claims

Continuing Claims (May 24)

Survey 3110K
Actual 3093K
Prior 3104K
Revised 3109K

And these are now coming off as well.

The Great Repricing of Risk -‘the worst recession since the Great Depression’- is looking more like a tiny blip for the real economy?

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2008-06-05 Mortgage Delinquencies

Mortgage Delinquencies (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.35%
Prior 5.82%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-05 Mortgage Delinquencies Survey

Mortgage Delinquencies Survey

Lagging indicators that shows how bad it was, probably in Q4 2007.
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2008-06-05 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (May)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised 3.5%

And yet another better than expected number.

The recent numbers are most likely better than Fed forecasters expected as well


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