- MBAVPRCH Index (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBAVREFI Index (Released 8:15 EST)
- ADP Employment Change (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
- Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 EST)
- GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
- Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
- Employment Cost Index (Released 8:30 EST)
- Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:45 EST)
- NAPM-Milwaukee (Released 10:00 EST)
- FOMC Rate Decision (Released 14:15 EST)
MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 340.1 |
| Prior | 357.3 |
| Revised | n/a |
Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.
MBAVREFI Index (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1905.2 |
| Prior | 2286.3 |
| Revised | n/a |
Settling down as well.
ADP Employment Change (Apr)
| Survey | -60K |
| Actual | 10K |
| Prior | 8K |
| Revised | 3K |
Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.
Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.
GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)
| Survey | 0.5% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 0.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.
Personal Consumption (1Q A)
| Survey | 0.7% |
| Actual | 1.0% |
| Prior | 2.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.
GDP Price Index (1Q A)
| Survey | 3.0% |
| Actual | 2.6% |
| Prior | 2.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.
Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)
| Survey | 2.2% |
| Actual | 2.2% |
| Prior | 2.5% |
| Revised | n/a |
The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…
Employment Cost Index (1Q)
| Survey | 0.8% |
| Actual | 0.7% |
| Prior | 0.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)
| Survey | 47.5% |
| Actual | 48.3% |
| Prior | 48.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.
NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 48.0 |
| Prior | 47.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
Also not down to recession levels yet.
FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)
| Survey | 2.00% |
| Actual | 2.0% |
| Prior | 2.25% |
| Revised | n/a |
[comments]
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Waren, What are your comments on the FOMC decision and statement. Seems
they were less hawkish than expected? They still think inflation will moderate.
Yes, my comments were posted late, just after Karim’s.
Seems they still trust their inflation forecasting models, which would have bankrupted any trading strategy long ago. Biggest problem is probably using the term structure of crude futures as price expectations rather than inventory conditions.
And maybe Bernanke is still afraid of gold standardesque tail risk, and the still mythical ‘credit decelerator’ spiral he’s mentioned.
So their forecasts probably show a high enough probability of a rising output gap and falling inflation for them to cut last week.
Plosser and Fisher excepted, of course!