2008-04-16 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.6
Prior 384.7
Revised n/a

Holding in its new, lower range.


2008-04-16 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 2866.0
Prior 2724.7
Revised n/a

Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.


2008-04-16 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 14.54
Prior 13.08
Revised n/a

Still down, but signs of a bottom.


In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough


Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.

2008-04-16 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey 1010K
Actual 947K
Prior 1065K
Revised 1075K

2008-04-16 Building Permits

Building Permits (Mar)

Survey 970K
Actual 927K
Prior 978K
Revised 984K

From Karim:

Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity


2008-04-16 Industrial Production

Industrial Production (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.7%

May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through


2008-04-16 Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization (Mar)

Survey 80.3%
Actual 80.5%
Prior 80.9%
Revised 80.3%

Staying too high for the typical recession.

Leave a Reply