- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Bloomberg Global Confidence
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)
Holding in its new, lower range.
MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)
Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.
Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)
Still down, but signs of a bottom.
In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.
Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)
Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)
Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough
- Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y
- Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).
- Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences
- Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%
- OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%
- Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend
Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.
Housing Starts (Mar)
Building Permits (Mar)
Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity
- Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP
- Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP
- Best news is not adding to inventories
Industrial Production (Mar)
May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through
Capacity Utilization (Mar)
Staying too high for the typical recession.