2008-04-11 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2008-04-11 Import Price Index YoY

Import Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey 13.7%
Actual 14.8%
Prior 13.6%
Revised 13.4%

This is a very strong inflation channel.


2008-04-11 U. of Michigan Survey

U. of Michigan Confidence (Apr P)

Survey 69.0
Actual 63.2
Prior 69.5
Revised n/a

From Karim:

2008-04-11 U. of Michigan Survey since 1980

U. of Michigan Survey since 1980

Interesting how low ‘confidence’ is in light of how much better GDP and employment is doing now vs then.

Part of it is the rising influence of the media, and part are the factors behind the export boom that are causing us to consume less and instead export more of our own output.

The channel this time around is rising costs for food and energy take away the purchasing power power needed to buy the rest of our output, and foreigners get to consume it instead via US exports.

2008-04-11 U. of Michigan 5yr Ahead Inflation Expectations

5yr Ahead Inflation Expectations

Yes, it’s part of the equation, as above, and the FOMC ‘knows’ it can’t allow inflation expectations to elevate.

While the Fed gives the 5 year more weight, it also watches the one year, particularly when it spikes.

2008-04-11 1yr Inflation Expectations

1 yr Inflation Expectations

In today’s report the one year survey hit 4.8%, they highest since one 4.8% reading in 1990. The only time it’s been higher was during the ‘great inflation’ of the 70’s- early 80’s.

Other comments from Michigan survey make from grim reading:

That’s the Bernanke vision as per his latest congressional testimony- less consumption and more exports and investment. Looks good, feels bad.

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