Import Price Index MoM (Feb)
| Survey | 0.8% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 1.7% |
| Revised | 1.6% |
Import Price Index YoY (Feb)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 13.6% |
| Prior | 13.7% |
| Revised | 13.8% |
Import Prices Ex Petroleum YoY
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 4.5% |
| Prior | 3.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
Exports MoM (Feb)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 0.9% |
| Prior | 1.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
Exports YoY (Feb)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 6.8% |
| Prior | 6.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
Inflation ripping via the ‘weak dollar’ channel.
Note: non-petroleum imports up 0.6%.
Advance Retail Sales (Feb)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | -0.6% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | 0.4% |
Retail Sales Less Autos (Feb)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | -0.2% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | 0.5% |
Retail sales soft, but not in collapse. That’s what an export economy looks like: domestic sales soft, while exports pick up the slack and support GDP, real terms of trade, and standards of living deteriorate.
Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 8)
| Survey | 357K |
| Actual | 353K |
| Prior | 351K |
| Revised | 353K |
Leveling off – nowhere near recession levels yet.
Would need to be 400K+.
Continuing Claims (Mar 1)
| Survey | 2835K |
| Actual | 2835K |
| Prior | 2831K |
| Revised | 2828K |
Moving a bit higher, but still far below recession levels.
Business Inventories (Jan)
| Survey | 0.5% |
| Actual | 0.8% |
| Prior | 0.6% |
| Revised | 0.7% |
Up some, but still much lower than prior to other recessions.