2008-03-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

2008-03-07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Survey 23K
Actual -63K
Prior -17K
Revised -22K

2008-03-07 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Survey 5.0%
Actual 4.8%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

The longer term chart is definitely looking lower/weaker, but not yet at recession levels, and is not ‘population adjusted.’

This give the Fed no comfort regarding inflation concerns.

The output gap is may already too low to bring inflation down, and their forecasts are for a (modest) pickup in growth when the fiscal package kicks in beginning early May.

In their models, it’s the forecast of rising unemployment that is responsible for the slack that brings inflation back into comfort zones.

Today’s 4.8% unemployment number is a step in the wrong direction for that to happen.

2008-03-07 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb)

Survey -25K
Actual -52K
Prior -28K
Revised -31K

Manufacturing employment falls indefinitely in a modern economy.

2008-03-07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

The Fed wants these to remain reasonably well-contained.

2008-03-07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-03-07 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Feb)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Down a tad.

Coming soon!

Consumer Credit (Jan)

Survey $7.0B
Prior $4.5B


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