2008-03-06 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 1)

Survey 360K
Actual 351K
Prior 373K
Revised 375K

So far staying near the 4 week average of about 360,000. While higher than before, this is no longer high enough for a large enough output gap to address the now elevated rate of inflation and upward creeping inflation expectations.


2008-03-06 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Feb 23)

2008-03-06 Continuing Claims since 1985

Continuing Claims since 1985

Survey 2810K
Actual 2831K
Prior 2807K
Revised 2802K

This too, is far to low for an output gap that the Fed may deem necessary to bring down inflation. The longer term chart is more informative in this regard.


2008-03-06 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -1.5%
Revised -1.2%

The last thing the Fed needs is for housing to pick up now and shrink the current output gap.
That would put them hundreds of basis points behind the inflation curve.


2008-03-06 Mortgage Delinquencies

Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.82%
Prior 5.59%
Revised n/a

Mostly the sub prime buldge, but higher quality mtg delinquencies are up as well. Again, with higher inflation, the Fed needs a larger output gap.


2008-03-06 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Shows how domestic demand has been moderating over time, but not collapsing to recession levels.

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