2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.24%
Prior -4.17%
Revised n/a

2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 245.70
Prior 254.29
Revised n/a

Both were falling into year end.

2008-03-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.3
Prior 50.7
Revised n/a

Better than expected. Not yet to recession levels.

2008-03-03 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 73.5
Actual 75.5
Prior 76.0
Revised n/a

Price pressures persisting.

2008-03-03 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

Very weak.

2008-03-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 15.5M
Actual 15.4M
Prior 15.2M
Revised n/a

As expected, but drifting to a lower range.

2008-03-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 11.9M
Actual 11.7M
Prior 11.7M
Revised n/a

Drifting lower.

Same twin themes: weak demand and higher prices.Exports keeping GDP from recession levels, but taking demand from the rest of the world that is also softening.

8 Responses

  1. Warren, on the construction spending, I am curious about some issues. Lets say the USA had severe immigration restriction like Japan had (very intolerant of immigrants or immigration) and was able to keep the borders locked tight (as japan was having only an Island to secure) So most american men are sitting down watching WWE, and most american women are shopping at macy’s. Now you come along and say, lets let everyone WORK that wants to work, and pay them 10 per hour. How would things have been different the past decade or so I wonder if we had circumstances similar to Japan and did not have a net influx of many immigrants. Me nor any of my friends wanted to get out and hammer a house together in the hot florida sun for 10 dollars, but lots of latinos did.

    Had we not allowed the latinos in, would unemployment numbers have been substantially different today?

    I read horror stories about california about people wanting to work, but there is none for them, so they go back home to mexico. McCain has said in several speeches we have had to violate US Laws concerning illegal immigration because those people will do work that no AMERICAN will do, even for 50 dollars an hour. Why is that so bad? If I live in Japan or USA and neither me nor any of my other citizens will do certain work, why must we go on a global manhunt for people so destitute that they will do things nobody in the borders will do?

    Is this simply an altruistic act to help take jungle people from the garden of eden and thrust them into the city of the tower of Babel?

    I see many communities in florida of retirees, when they were young, they all got out and kept very green lawns, but then as they aged they stopped working, and no amount of pride, self respect, or money would make them do yard work. So in many of these communities the yards died, or people put in synthetic grass, or they put ROCKS in their yard.
    Some of the retirees liked rock yards and synthetic grass yards or no yard at all. Certainly the large majority liked any of those outcomes versus working out in the hot sun maintaining a yard as an old retiree.

    What if warren mosler had come to one of these communities with some slaves from Africa and says for 1 dollar a month we will maintain the yard, why is this the best policy decision? The market seems to have already spoken – yards aren’t worth maintaining. In palm beach Fl the “workers” have to come from very far away, the fuel costs certainly have to make this less and less economical going forward. The island can only support so many people, bringing in more and more destitute people to work for cheaper and cheaper, you eventually run up against natural barrier limits to the ecosystems ability to sustain itself it seems. Is there no point where you see full employment for everyone that wants work is just too exhaustive on the resources of the sustaining environment?

  2. First, unemployment comes from a lack of agg demand, which can always be continuously remedied by fiscal balance. (see full employment and price stability on this page)

    Second, if the monetary system were understood, deciding what types of people we want living with us would not be about unemployment. Full employment can be sustained anywhere anytime.

    Third, the rest of what you say is a byproduct of the institutional structure surrounding the monetary system.

    Last, if you offer a $10 an hour job to anyone willing and able to work you will get a lot of young people who can do useful work and get a chance to show what they can do. Teenage unemployment is very high and a lot of damage is done by not having ready work for them.

  3. My grandpa put his 8 kids to work on the farm at 3 years old and up. He beat them good when they backtalked him or my grandma, they all grew up to be successful businessmen save for 1. Both my sisters were handed everything and catered to as supreme royal spoiled princesses. They never got spanked. They both turned out to be crackheads. They were too good to cut grass for 40 dollars a yard or flip a hamburger for 10 an hour. Shame on you Warren, I can’t imagine a young hillary type that is 16 years old being asked to do degrading menial labor work for minimum wage, the humanity!

    Much better to save our children from learning such lessons and to import Pedro to do all that stuff!

  4. If we pursue a full-employment policy as detailed in the white papers on this site, there may not be any crack dealers to sell crack to your sisters. 😉

  5. and reread Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels- could have be written yesterday about today’s political and socials goings ons.

    bottom line- go live with the horses…

  6. especially if we legalize the problem drugs and take them out of the hands of the legal system and put them back in the hands of the religious sector- let them earn their tax status, etc.

    price would fall to near 0, taking out all the crime and violence. last time we had kids with machine guns was prohibition.

    and with only maybe 10% of the world’s population needed to grow all the food and produce all the other stuff, at the macro level we can afford to risk having a few extra drug addicts with no real loss to the economy.

  7. Warren I think that is a good idea what you suggest, also with SPITZER about to blow up, I feel we should also legalize prostitution, the USA is giving the criminals too much power. 4000 per hour for an escort!!!! We definitely need to take the bite out of crime that can get those kinds of fees!

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