2008-02-29 Personal Income YoY

Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.9
Prior 5.6
Revised n/a

Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.

This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.


2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expense Nom$ YoY

Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.8%
Revised n/a

Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.


2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain YoY

Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Price YoY

Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

This is problematic for the Fed.


2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Core YoY

Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.


2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Market Based YoY

Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

As above, this is way too high for comfort.


2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expendatures Market Based Core YoY

Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.


2008-02-29 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

As above.


2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 49.5
Actual 44.5
Prior 51.5
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.

New orders up as well.


2008-02-29 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 70.0
Actual 70.8
Prior 69.6
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 U of Michigan Confidence TABLE

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

While better than expected, does not look good.

And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.


2008-02-29 NAPM Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 53.0
Prior 58.0
Revised n/a

Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..

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