2008-01-04 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Survey 4.8%
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

It comes from the household survey – been volatile.


2008-01-04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Survey 70K
Actual 18K
Prior 94K
Revised 115K

2008-01-04 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)

Survey -15K
Actual -31K
Prior -11K
Revised -13K

Payroll increases continue to decline modestly over time. The fed believes demographic changes will reduce the labor force participation rate, keeping unemployment relatively low and labor markets tight, even with fewer jobs.


2008-01-04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

2008-01-04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.8%
Revised n/a

Remains firm, and productivity probably down, meaning unit labor costs rising some.


2008-01-04 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Dec)

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.8
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

2008-01-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey 53.6
Actual 53.9
Prior 54.1
Revised

Very firm and cross checks with th 93,000 increase in service sector jobs for December.

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Note the strength in the price categories.


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6 Responses

  1. “Sixty-eight percent of SSI and 27 percent of Social Security check recipients do not have bank accounts; extrapolating this data into the larger population of federal beneficiaries, this equates to approximately 4.5 million unbanked check recipients. Despite the high percentages of unbanked check recipients, 81 percent of Social Security and 50 percent of SSI check recipients go to a local bank or credit union to cash their checks. ”

    http://www.godirect.org/about_research.cfm

    From my framework, direct deposit places fed funds directly in bank’s accounts and discourages use of cash providing a cheap source of fed funds.

    Debit cards take direct deposit one step further. Given this is a single bank that will issue debit cards to 4.5 million recipients at $1100/ recipient* means this bank will have access to close to $5 billion in fed funds at a 0% rate. $5 billion at 4.25% is $210 million/yr. This is money that use to sit at the treasury until cashed?

    Looks like another ’tilt’ to the system this time towards Comerica. Another Enron or a recommened buy?

    *http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_04/b3917001_mz001.htm

  2. from what you say the tsy will lose some float. not sure what the ave balance of that float is.

    not sure how material that will be. let me know!

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