2007-12-21 Personal Income

Personal Income (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

OK number.

2007-12-21 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Nice bounce back from a low number also revised up. Makes the two month average about 0.75%. This will cause further upward revisions of Q4 GDP.

2007-12-21 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised 3.0%

Back to my favorite quote from September, ‘If the fed doesn’t care about inflation, why should I?’

Wonder what it takes for the fed to care?

2007-12-21 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-21 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 2.0%

Core at or though fed’s upper bound.


U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 74.5
Actual 75.5
Prior 74.5
Revised 2.0%

People still watching CNBC.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 1 Year Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 1 Year Ahead

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

One of the fed’s indicators – don’t like this action as they think once it elevates it’s too late.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 5 Years Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 5 Years Ahead

Survey n/a
Actual 3.1%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

As above – once it elevates it’s too late.


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