Need more tariffs…


Amid the unfolding of tariff effects, exports are moving in the wrong direction and look to be a big negative for third-quarter GDP. The nation’s trade deficit in goods was a whopping $75.8 billion in August with exports down 1.6 percent for a second straight month. Imports are also a negative for the trade balance, up 0.7 percent following a 0.9 price rise in July.

Not good:


It’s hard to find good news in the housing sector and today’s pending sales index doesn’t offer any, falling a very steep 1.8 percent and well below Econoday’s consensus range. The drop will lower estimates for the next report on existing home sales.

All regions show declines in the month with the steepest in the West at minus 5.9 percent. The West also shows the steepest decline year-on-year at minus 11.3 with only the South in the plus column on this basis, but at only 1.3 percent. Overall year-on-year sales are at minus 2.3 percent.

Depressed and working their way lower this year:


A big swing higher for civilian aircraft skews August’s durable goods headline which jumped 4.5 percent to hit Econoday’s high estimate. But when excluding aircraft and other transportation equipment, durable goods orders inched only 0.1 percent higher which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. And far below the low estimate are core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) which fell 0.5 percent.

Not inflation adjusted or population adjusted:

This appears to have flattened out again?