2008-01-25 Balance of Risks Update
Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year
January 25, 2008
Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year
Major themes intact: weak economy higher prices Weakness: US demand soft but supported by exports. US export strength resulting from non resident ‘desires’ to reduce
We have gone from the jobless recovery to the full employment recession. Recap of prospects for strong GDP in 2008 – details/support covered in previous
The desire to accumulate $US financial assets has been diminished for at least the following reasons: Treasury policy – Paulson is actively pushing both a
No Recession, yet.. Demand drop of 1% of GDP began over a year ago when home buying by subprime borrowers ceased.. And exports picked up
3 mo libor is now for all practical purposes is ‘under control’ and down about 50 bp since the last Fed meeting. Market function risk
Food, fuel, and $/import prices present a triple negative supply shock. Now gold pushing $900 as LIBOR falls, commercial paper issuance increases, and ‘market function
On Jan 5, 2008 9:40 PM, Steve Martyak wrote: > http://www.autodogmatic.com/index.php/sst/2007/02/02/subprime_credit_crunch_could_trigger_col > > > also…. > > 9/4/2006 > Cover of Business Week: How Toxic
A very British bubble for Mr Brown Leader Sunday December 16 2007 The Observer The buzz words in the world of finance these days are
A Rescue Plan for the Dollar By Ronald McKinnon and Steve H. Hanke The Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2007 Central banks ended the year