Covid dip, recovery, and now settling back at prior levels. After years of ultra low mortgage rates growth remains slower and absolute levels far below the prior cycle:

Post war slowdown narrative continues to unfold:

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an upwardly revised +0.44 in the previous month, suggesting there was a contraction in economic activity following a two-month period of expansion.”