Employment data remains solid:
This survey is a tad on the weak side, but employment remains firm, indicating core strength:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US fell for a second consecutive month to 48.4 in December of 2022 from 49 in November, slightly below forecasts of 48.5. The reading pointed to the second month of contraction in factory activity and the biggest decline since May of 2020 at the height of the covid pandemic. Further contractions were recorded for new orders (45.2 vs 47.2), and new export orders (46.2 vs 48.4) while production also declined (48.5 vs 51.5). On the other hand, employment rebounded (51.4 vs 48.4), with many companies confirming that they are continuing to manage head counts through a combination of hiring freezes, employee attrition and layoffs. Also, inventories grew faster (51.8 vs 50.9) and price pressures eased (39.4, the lowest reading since April 2020 vs 43). The month-over-month performance of supplier deliveries (45.1 vs 47.2) was the best since March 2009. Only two manufacturing industries reported growth in December: Primary Metals; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
source: Institute for Supply Management
This is the opposite of recession, and note the reference to increased government spending, which includes interest expense from the rate hikes:
