Does anyone see anything other than jobs going sideways, and personal consumption expenditures and GDP, if anything decelerating?
Including cars and housing, which look to have flattened this year, and need to steepen to keep it all going. And employment does tend to lag some?
And same with most indicators, apart from some ‘confidence’ indicators?
Nor do the credit aggregates show any expansion that would change things?
Except for govt, which is going backwards with tax hikes and spending cuts, and automatic stabilizers offering front line resistance to even modest levels of growth? Exports going backwards, imports up, and recent oil price hikes are GDP/employment negatives as well?
I’m not saying the Fed doesn’t like what’s happening. They do, and odds are that with another two sideways months they will be tapering in Sept. As if that matter for anything fundamental.
And take another look at this chart. Can you detect the influence of $85 billion/mo of QE? No, because there isn’t any, and don’t tell me it would have been worse otherwise.