Off a touch but this follows a very strong post-COVID spike:
Many of the surveys have been weaker than the actual numbers, perhaps biased by forecasts and Fed intentions of rate hikes slowing things down and causing a recession:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 49 in November of 2022 from 50.2 in October and more than market forecasts of 49.8 pointing to the first contraction in factory activity since May 2020. New orders (47.2 vs 49.2), supplier deliveries (47.2 vs 46.8), and backlog of orders (40 vs 45.3) contracted faster. Also, employment declined (48.4 vs 50) with companies confirming that they are continuing to manage headcounts through a combination of hiring freezes, employee attrition, and now layoffs. At the same time, slower growth was reported for both production (51.5 vs 52.3) and inventories (50.9 vs 52.5). On a positive note, price pressures eased again (43 vs 46.6). “Managing head counts and total supply chain inventories remain primary goals. Order backlogs, prices, and now lead times are declining rapidly, which should bring buyers and sellers back to the table to refill order books based on 2023 business plans”, Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Committee said.
source: Institute for Supply Management
Still above levels associated with recession:
Solid growth the way I see it:
Inflation was keeping this down, but it remained high even after government COVID spending ended and now it is growing again:
Underlying nominal personal income growth is rock solid:
