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Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth. No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession

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September 15, 2022

CPI, Restaurants and airlines, optimism index

Gone flat since oil prices broke, and means that the strong nominal personal income growth becomes strong real income growth: Still negative but making a

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September 13, 2022

Unemployment claims, PMI services, mtg applications and lending

No sign of recession, and lots of indications the rate hikes that are adding to deficit spending as supporting the economy and prices, and not

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September 8, 2022

Employment, durable goods orders

No recession here either: Asymptotically approaching pre-Covid levels: Wage growth continues to lag (not cause) the growth rate of the CPI: Government had more employees

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September 2, 2022

JOLTS, ISM manufacturing, fed funds rate

No recession yet, at least partially due to the increased federal deficit spending on interest payments as the Fed hikes rates: With debt/GDP the rate

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September 1, 2022

Car sales, Dallas Fed, Gasoline supplied

Maybe stabilizing? Post-Covid bounce followed by a dip from the post-Covid cuts in fiscal spending, but no recession yet: A bit of a slowdown but

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August 29, 2022

GDP, Jobless claims, personal income and consumption

No recession yet: Income and consumption not yet indicating recession:

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August 26, 2022

Chicago Fed, new home sales, manufacturing

Back to slow growth: At least so far, the post-Covid spike has been nearly reversed. We’ll see where it goes from here: Post-Covid bounce reversed,

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August 24, 2022

Retail sales, existing home sales, Philly Fed, Jobless claims

Sluggish growth but not recession, and no one giving credit to the Fed for hiking rates to increase the deficit and help keep it to

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August 18, 2022

Housing starts, industrial production, NY Times quote

Permits and starts have fallen off but are still above pre-Covid levels. This particular sector is presumed to be the target of Fed rate hikes.

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August 16, 2022
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