Vehicle sales up to 16 million annual selling rate is promising but unfortunately not itself enough to move the needle as it’s not that much higher than last year’s rate, and also it’s expected to cool off for the rest of the year.
Also, in the past recessions have caused a ‘shortage’ due to ‘aging’ that got ‘filled in’ with sales spiking higher then before the recession to ‘make up’ for the lost ground. This time it hasn’t happened.
But it might, which could be the ‘leadership’ in domestic credit creation needed to sustain positive GDP growth. But with the only modest support from housing and income releases, as well as the trade numbers looking like the support there for Q2 will not be there in Q3, looks to me like it’s not a sure thing.
As for the Fed, discounting a Summers appointment means discounting what’s previously proven to be a seriously loose cannon.