Coming down, but still a lot of people collecting benefits
Counter to what the Fed believes, the 0 rate policy has a damping effect on growth
and inflation due to the income interest paid by the Treasury to the economy, and
also due to forward pricing effects.
So far, the increase in gov deficit spending has about offset the decrease in private sector
deficit spending. Nor do I see much more in the way of Federal deficit spending as
the infrastructure bill seems to be both watered down and bogged down, and there’s a substantial
belief in the narrative that Federal benefits are keeping people from working.
We’ll see what happens with covid fears fading, but it may already be priced into the financial markets.