A lesser indicator but might be indicative at the moment:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Both ICSC-Goldman and Redbook report slowing in the November 1 store-sales week with Redbook’s year-on-year same-store rate down 5 tenths to plus 3.9 percent. Redbook notes that this year’s late week Halloween, which fell on a Friday, may have backfired, having on the one hand boosted sales at those stores focusing on Halloween items but reducing sales at other retailers. Still, Redbook’s month-to-month comparison is plus 0.2 percent which offers a marginally positive indication for the ex-auto ex-gas reading of the government’s October retail sales report. Individual stores will post their October results on Thursday.
Trade a bit less then expected is also a downward revision to q3 GDP as exports fell.
Recall a prior post indicating the trade contribution to GDP looked suspect to the high side.
This is a partial adjustment.
Lower oil prices will help, but that also means less oil income for foreign producers who also buy our exports.
Exports declined 1.5 percent in September, following a rise of 0.3 percent in August. Imports were unchanged, following a 0.1 percent uptick the month before.
The petroleum gap grew to $14.0 billion from $13.1 billion in August. The goods excluding petroleum gap increased to $47.2 billion from $45.5 billion in August. The services surplus slipped to $19.6 billion from $20.2 billion.
Overall, slower global growth is nudging down growth in the U.S. But recently lower oil prices likely will result in a favorable number for October.