Speaks for itself:
Nice to see an up month after a down one, but the year over year chart says it all:
Factory orders rose nearly as expected in June, up 1.8 percent for only the second gain in the last 11 months. The durable goods component, initially released last week, is unrevised at plus 3.4 percent in a gain distorted by aircraft orders but one that does reflect a pop higher for capital goods. The non-durables component, data released with today’s report, rose 0.4 percent on order gains for oil and chemicals.
Orders for civilian aircraft jumped 65 percent in the month following, in routine up-and-down fashion for this component, a 32 percent downswing in May. Industries reporting respectable gains include 0.5 percent for furniture and 0.6 percent for motor vehicles as well as a 1.5 percent gain for machinery. Orders for energy equipment bounced back 5.5 percent after sinking 25 percent in May. Year-on-year, energy equipment is down 51 percent.
Looking at totals again, shipments rose a very solid 0.5 percent with shipments of core capital goods up 0.3 percent. The latter, which is a key reading that excludes aircraft, isn’t spectacular but is still a solid gain for business investment. Unfilled orders, which have been in contraction most of the year, were unchanged in June. Inventories rose 0.6 percent in a build that falls in line with shipments, keeping the inventory-to-shipments ratio at a manageable 1.35.
Today’s report offers rare good news for a factory sector that, due to weak exports and the collapse in oil & gas equipment, has been struggling to stay above water for the last year.
Minor index but another indicator of a drop in ‘confidence’: