Everything pretty much as expected and the same, helped by vehicle sales which are both volatile and leveling off:
United States : Personal Income and Outlays
There’s no hurry for a rate hike based on the July personal income and outlays report where inflation readings are very quiet. Core PCE prices rose only 0.1 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate moving backwards, not forwards, to a very quiet plus 1.2 percent. Total prices are also quiet, also at plus 0.1 percent for the monthly rate and at only plus 0.3 percent the yearly rate.
On the consumer, the data are very solid led by a 0.4 percent rise in income that includes a 0.5 percent rise in wages & salaries which is the largest since November last year. Other income details, led by transfer receipts, also gained in the month. Spending rose 0.3 percent led by a 1.1 gain in durables that’s tied to vehicle sales. The savings rate is also healthy, up 2 tenths to 4.9 percent.
The growth side of this report is very favorable and marks a good beginning for the third quarter. This at the same time that inflation pressures remain stubbornly dormant. And remember this report next month will reflect the August downturn in fuel prices. With the core PCE index out of the way, next week’s August employment report looks to be the last big question mark going into the September 17 FOMC.
First the recession then the tax hikes and sequesters ratchet down after tax income, and the growth rate is both low and never enough to ‘catch up’:
And over the last year you can see how the drop in oil capex after the price fell did the same thing though on a smaller scale, at least so far:
This is further decelerating from already weak numbers, not to forget health care premiums count as consumption expenditures, with a one time adjustment in progress as previously uninsured people become insured and begin paying premiums:
Aug 28 (Xinhua) — Profits of China’s major industrial firms fell 2.9 percent year on year in July, sharply down from the 0.3-percent decline posted in June. The NBS attributed the poor performance to weak domestic demand and a continuous fall in factory gate prices, which have suffered 41 consecutive months of declines. Profits at industrial companies with annual revenues of more than 20 million yuan (about 3.1 million U.S. dollars) totaled 471.6 billion yuan in July. During the first seven months, industrial profits dropped one percent from a year earlier, compared with a fall of 0.7 percent registered in the first half of the year, the NBS said.