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  1. I guess as lagging economic indicators go, you can’t beat presidential approval ratings. :o)

    Yale Professor Ray Fair’s presidential election prediction model (for the popular vote, the electoral college defies logic) weighs: growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first 3 quarters of election year, growth rate of GDP deflator in prior 15 quarters and number of those 15 quarters that real per capita GDP was greater than 3.2% annualized.

    While digging up that link, just came across something else pretty cool Professor Fair has put online:

    U.S. macroeconometric model [and] a multicountry econometric model to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.

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