The question is whether this front loaded 2014 hiring.
If it did, H2 employment gains could be materially lower.
“To be sure, there are signs that employment in the country is rising more rapidly these days. The February to July period was the first six-month stretch of consistent employment gains above 200,000 since 1997. And that came without any new programs from the federal government to “create jobs.” Even more surprising, those gains overlapped a quarter in which GDP actually contracted.
So what drove the increase? University of Chicago professor Casey Mulligan put his finger on it: “Major subsidies and regulations intended to help the poor and unemployed . . . reduce incentives for people to work and for businesses to hire.” And guess what happened when federal emergency job assistance ended? Job increases were the best in 17 years.”